探讨新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)患者病情严重程度及转归的影响因素。

选取2020年1月25日至3月7日在武汉红安县城COVID-19定点医院隔离病区收治的252例COVID-19患者作为研究对象，回顾性分析患者的临床资料及流行病史。采用Pearson相关和Logistic逐步回归对病情严重程度及转归的影响因素进行分析，构建受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析影响因素对COVID-19患者病情严重程度和转归的预测。

COVID-19患者的发病年龄与病情严重程度和转归明显相关(r＝0.420，0.226；均P<0.01)，住院天数、接触史和性别与病情严重程度(r＝0.032，0.045，0.087)和转归(r＝0.067，0.092，0.124)无显著相关性(均P>0.05)。年龄>70岁患者的病死率(4/18，22.22%)高于≤70岁患者(3/234，1.28%)(P<0.01)，轻症组的平均年龄[(46.50±14.26)岁]明显小于重症组[(62.95±14.64)岁](t＝4.70，P<0.01)。发病年龄是影响患者病情严重程度(OR＝1.624)和转归(OR＝2.179)的危险因素之一(均P<0.01)，对患者的病情严重程度和转归均有一定的预测作用(AUC＝0.785，0.896；均P<0.01)。

发病年龄是COVID-19患者病情严重程度和转归的危险因素之一，对其病情严重程度和转归有一定的预测作用，在防控和治疗COVID-19的工作过程中应该重点保护高龄人群。

To explore the influencing factors of severity and outcome in patients with Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).

A total of 252 cases of COVID-19 patients admitted to the Isolation Ward of the COVID-19 Designated Hospital in Hongan County around Wuhan from January 25, 2020 to March 7, 2020 were selected as study subjects. The clinical characteristics and epidemic history were reviewed and analyzed retrospectively. Pearson correlation analysis and Logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the influencing factors of the severity and outcome of COVID-19. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to analyze the prediction of influencing factors on the severity and outcome of COVID-19 patients.

The age of onset of COVID-19 patients was significantly correlated with the severity and outcome of the disease (r=0.420, 0.226, all P<0.01), but there were no significant correlation between hospitalization days, contact history, sex and the severity (r=0.032, 0.045, 0.087) or outcome (r=0.067, 0.092, 0.124) of the disease (all P>0.05). The fatality rate in patients over 70 years old (4/18, 22.22%) was significantly higher than that in the patients under 70 years old (3/234, 1.28%)(P<0.01), while the average age in the mild group [(46.50±14.26)years] was significantly lower than that in the severe group [(62.95±14.64)years](t=4.70, P<0.01). The age of onset was one of the risk factors affecting the severity (OR=1.624) and outcome (2.179) of the patients (all P<0.01), and could predict the severity and outcome of the patients(AUC=0.785, 0.896, all P<0.01).

The age of onset is one of the risk factors for the severity and outcome of COVID-19 patients, and it can predict the severity and outcome of COVID-19. The elderly population should be protected in the process of prevention, control and treatment.